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12:01 AM

Calendar - - - KR Calendar - - - Wrightson - - - Tsys Supply - - - Econoday - - - Any Date
Monday
10:00 ISM non-mfg report
13:00 10-yr TIPS auction

Forecasts - - - Barchart at 7:45 Daily

10:45 AM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - Previous day's commentary and bullets are below the dividing line

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12:00 AM

DJIA / S&P / Headlines - - - SMRA Headlines
DJIA down -218.94 at 8285.12
S&P is 897.15 -26.18

Briefing: A disappointing jobs report prompted sellers to knock stocks sharply lower in the first few minutes of trading. Stocks then locked into an extremely narrow trading range until the S&P 500 slipped below the psychologically significant 900 level in the final half-hour of trading.

4:20 PM

Spot FX: Yen Stars vs USD & Euro - - - Bloomberg
Euro is 1.4023 vs 1.4152; the low is 1.2333 on Oct 27
Dollar-Yen is 95.816 vs 96.52
Euro-yen at 134.39 vs 136.59; 1yr low is 113.60 on Oct 27
Canadian dollar 1.1612 vs 1.1488; dollar high is 1.3015 on Oct 28
Aussie dollar is 79.54 vs 80.92; the low is 60.08 on Oct 28

3:00 PM

News Highlights - - - MktWatch - - - Reuters - - - FT - - - WSJ - - - Alpha - - - Bloom - - - SMRA
Crude ends down $2.58, or 3.7%, at $66.73 a barrel
August gold ends down 1.1% at $931 an ounce
Oil prices tumble below $67 as Europe and the US shed jobs
Factory Orders: +1.2% vs +1.4% consensus, 3rd up in 4 months; ex-trans orders +0.8%
Jobless rate 9.5% Net revision is +8K. All in May
Nonfarm payrolls down 467,000
Jobless claims down 16,000 to 614,000; Continuing claims down 53,000 to 6.70 mln
ECB leaves key interest rate unchanged at 1%
Euro-Zone unemployment rises to 10-year high at 9.5%
Swedish Central bank unexpectedly cuts rates to counter recession
Nikkei closed down -63 vs expected gain of +109 points

2:55 PM

Briefing Stocks & Bonds Commentary- - - Stocks - - - Bonds
Bonds were bounced better in extreme light trade with the mid-curve leading higher the majority of the session with the 5-yr swinging to 2.401% from a 2.518% yield since the report. The long weekend and sliding stocks aided some, while the upcoming $73B in issuance to hit next week helped keep a lid on prices. Now that the pretty poor jobs report is over and done with the market will concern itself with how to take down all the supply coming through in the 3-30-yrs. The market was given some support on the less aggressive comments from ECB's Trichet following their rate meeting while global bonds were generally higher. The curve was swung to the week's steepest levels early, but came back to a more flattened 250 on the 2-10-yr yield spread.

2:30 PM

Seeking Alpha- - - Market Currents
Jonathan Weil argues our financial system won't get back to normalcy until balance sheets do, noting 336 financial companies trade for less than 60% of their book value: "When this many banks still have balance sheets that defy belief, it means the industry probably hasn�t re-established trust with the investing public."

12:25 PM

Brown Brothers - - - Updates
Japan�s Financial Service Agency will reportedly will limit the amount leveraging available to retail foreign exchange participants, who according to estimates account for around a quarter of the daily turnover in Tokyo, which according the the BIS survey averaged about $302 bln a day. The FSA plans call for capping leverage starting next year at 50-times and then cutting it to 25-times at the start of 2011.

11:31 AM

Daily FX / Laidi - - - Daily FX - - - Ashraf Laidi - - - Laidi Twitter
Although both USD and JPY gaining vs all other currencies, we may see further upside for JPY as USD longs are increasingly short-lived in cautiousness of the next bout of jawboning from Chinese officials regarding reserve currencies.

Treasury To Sell $73 Billion
Tuesday: $35B 3-yrs
Wednesday: $19B reopened 10-yrs
Thursday: $11B reopened 30-yrs along with $32B 3-mo and $31B 6-mo bills

11:30 AM

WSJ / Real-Time Economics / Market Beat - - - WSJ - - - RT - - - MB
RTE: �U-6? for its data classification, hit 16.5% in June, 0.1 percentage point higher. || The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus �marginally attached workers� � those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that�s all they could find.

MB: Market watchers seem particularly troubled with the figure on average workweeks. In June, the average workweek inched down by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours. That�s the lowest level for that figure on record � that is, going back to 1964. �I think the average work week is the huge story,� said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets. �It tells us that nobody is going to be hiring anytime soon.�

11:01 AM

CounterPunch - - - CounterPunch - - - The Nation
The Wall Street White House - How Goldman Sachs and Citi Run the Show - Recent reports suggest that financial industry lobbying in Washington, at $104.7 million for the first three months of 2009, is 8% down on last year. But that is to be expected � why should Wall Street continue paying top dollar for a wholly owned subsidiary?

10:51 AM

FTN Commentary - Chris Low
Bottom line: The trend toward recovery suffered a setback today, as payrolls fell more than expected. This confirms the setback in several other reports, including The University of Michigan�s consumer sentiment survey. Still, the huge job losses of the first quarter are well behind us now, and the unemployment rate is no longer rising at a pace of four-tenths a month. We continue to expect positive economic growth in the third quarter.

10:50 AM

Credit Writedowns - - - Ed Harrison - - - News from 1930
1930 Again: Market decline has been worldwide, but an improvement in the US should spread. "Business all over the world in recent years has contracted a habit of moving in sympathy with the course of business in the United States. And there is good reason." || Many broker's letters say it's a good time to buy stocks as long-term investments, particularly quality rails, many of which are yielding 6%-7%. || Broadway theater operators will implement new plan July 21 to curb scalping by ticket brokers.

10:45 AM

Calendar and Forecasts - - - KR Calendar - - - Wrightson - - - Tsys Supply - - - Econoday - - - Any Date
Tuesday
07:45 Weekly chain store surveys
13:00 3-yr note auction
17:00 ABC Consumer Comfort Index

Wed 7/8
07:00 MBA mortgage applications index
13:00 10Y note auction (re-opening)
15:00 Consumer credit

Thu 7/9
08:00 Monthly Chain store sales, but without WMT results
08:30 Jobless claims
09:00 Duke: at FDIC conference
10:00 Wholesale inventories
10:15 Fed Treasury coupon purchase
13:00 30-yr bond (r) auction

10:44 AM

Inflationary Expectations Cooler by -5.5bp
10Y is -5.5bp to 3.48%; was 3.00% when Fed announced quantitative ease
Tips is -0.0bp to 1.79%; was 1.15% at the same time

CPI inflation is expected to be 1.69% over the next 10 years
The gauge was 2.10% on Jun 9; 1.70% on Jun 29; 0.74% on Jan 23; 0.135% on Dec 31
The all-time low is 0.010% on Nov 20 and the 2008 high was 2.613% on July 3

2Y/10Y Curve is flatter by -0.2bp to 249.1 - - - Snapshot - - - Bloomberg Tsys
2Y is -6.3bp at 0.990%

10:40 AM

Across The Curve - - - Commentary
Ten year TIPS are taking a thrashing. The breakeven inflation rate has declined to 166 basis points. It closed two days ago at 178 and at the height of the debacle in early June it was 205. There are two reasons. Moments from now the treasury will announce a 10 year TIPS auction for Monday. And there is a whiff of deflation in the labor report.

10:35 AM

Stone & McCarthy - - - SMRA - - - Headline Window
June Employment Analysis--Part I
The underlying story remains a picture that is becoming "Less Bad" over time. This is ultimately a precondition for stabilization. How Much Less Bad? Perhaps a good way of looking at these data is taking the average May/June payroll readings and comparing this average decline of 395,000, with the average 645,000 monthly decline over the prior 6 months.

10:20 AM

Political Links - - - Drudge - - - Beast - - - Political Wire - - - Buchanan - - - Meme - - - Truth
Beast: Investigators are finally making some headway on last month's mysterious plane crash. The Associated Press reports that Flight 447 from Rio de Janeiro to Paris did not break up in the air, but plunged vertically into the Atlantic Ocean in June,...

10:15 AM

Eric Roseman - - - Eric Roseman
The prospect for a quick residential real estate recovery continues to look dim in 2009 as the market struggles to wind down a 12-month supply glut.

Recent housing data point to a gradual improvement in some areas of the battered U.S. real estate market. To be sure, existing house sales have edged higher this spring and prices in some regions have begun to stabilize. But we�re still a long way off from a new bull market � probably years away as a lethal combination of rising unemployment, soaring foreclosures, ARM resets and a supply glut weigh on recovery prospects.

10:10 AM

Stratfor - - - Situation Reports - - - PodCast - - - Stratfor Video
Podcast: About 4,000 U.S. Marines have swarmed into Taliban-controlled Helmand province, where the battle strategy will be markedly different in many respects from anything seen in Afghanistan up to now.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking about the Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution, said July 2 that construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank must stop, Haaretz reported. Merkel said that "it is now important to get commitments from all sides and that includes the issue of settlement building."

9:46 AM

Big Picture / Paul Kadrosky / Atlantic - - - Big Picture - - - Kedrosky - - - Atlantic Voices
Big: Lost in the payroll news was the ECB press conference where ECB Pres Trichet hinted that interest rates should remain at the 1% level. He is definitely not in the deflation camp when he says that negative inflation will be short lived and is due more to temporary factors (aka falling food and energy prices y/o/y predominantly). He however is not worried about inflation as he believes expectations are firmly anchored. He believes the euro zone economy will remain weak but the pace of contraction will continue to slow and a recovery will begin in mid 2010.

9:26 AM

EconomPic / Mish / Daily Finance - - - EconomPic - - - Mish's - - - Daily Finance
EconPic: According to the Birth / Death model, small businesses have added 800,000 jobs over the past 12 months (through May

9:26 AM

Zero Hedge - - - Tyler Durden

9:23 AM

Street Smart - - - Sy Harding - - - S&P 21-day and 200-day
Gold has become very volatile in the last several days, with daily rallies and declines of $12 and $14 an ounce. We remain on our recent sell signal for gold, but told subscribers it had become a bit oversold short-term beneath its 21-day m.a, and might rally back up to test the m.a. as now being short-term overhead resistance on rally attempts, where before it was short-term support. Gold rallied back exactly to the m.a. yesterday, and is back to the downside this morning.

9:20 AM

Calculated Risk - - - Calculated Risk

9:16 AM

CK Michaelson - - - No Assembly Required

9:15 AM

Wrightson Calendar and Commentary - - - Wrightson ICAP
The payroll data confirmed that labor market trends have improved, but not by as much as indicated by the previous month's report. In the household survey, a shift in the composition of the data led to a smaller increase in the unemployment rate than we anticipated.

9:10 AM

Man Financial Research Group - - - Log On: wkidder 147258
The economic numbers are bearish stocks and bullish for treasuries. There is not much to really say. The economy remains weak. I believe that hiring will remain depressed due to the socialist policies in Washington and lack of an economic driver.

Payroll Breakdown, but there is across the board weakness:
1. Construction jobs declined 79,000
2. Manufactuirng decreased 136,000
3. Retail declined 21,000
4. Business services fell 188,000 with temporary help off 38,000
5. Financial fell 27,000
6. Government jobs declined 52,000
7. Education and healthcare bucked the trend and rose 34,000

Household employment fell 374,000.
Labor force declined 155,000
Unemployment rose 218,000 � less than recent months
Hourly earnings were unchanged.
Hours worked fell 0.1 to 33.0. Manufacturing rose 0.1 to 39.5 and OT was flat at 2.8

Payrolls fell 467,000. -367,000 expected. Net revision is +8K. All in May.
Unemploymetn rate rose 0.1% to 9.5%. 9.6% expected
Initial unemployment claims fell 13,000 to 514,000. 615,000 expected
Continuing claims fell 36K to 6.702 mln. 6.740 mln expectred.

8:57 AM

Clusterstock - - - Clusterstock
You might think that with all these layoffs, employers are working their current employees to the bone. Nope. Full-time workers have never worked shorter work weeks, according to the just-released unemployment report

8:50 AM

Briefing Stocks & Bonds Commentary- - - Stocks - - - Bonds
The short end is leading the rally with the 2-yr back through to the LAST payrolls level, knocking the yield back through the 1% point, trimming 6.4 basis points off the pre-release levels. The curve was twisted both ways while its initial spike steeper has been tempered quickly as the 2-10-yr yield spread is running 249.1.

8:49 AM

Pragmatic Capitalist - - - Pragmatic Capitalist
As we reach the halfway point in 2009 let�s take a look at our 2009 investment predictions and see how we�re doing:

8:22 AM

Beat The Press / PolitiFact - - - Dean Baker - - - PolitiFact
Morgan Stanley Profits: The Story on Risk Goes Both Ways - The NYT noted that one factor depressing Morgan Stanley's profit last quarter was its improved credit standing, which increased the market value of its debt. The NYT implied that this was a peculiar accounting rule. The rule may be peculiar, but it goes both wars. In prior quarters, Morgan Stanley increased its profits (or lowered its losses) by writing down the market vale of its debt as its credit quality deteriorated.

8:00 AM

Slate - - - Slate Home
Today's Papers: The expectation that unemployment will continue to increase well into next year "may exert a powerful drag on the recovery," notes the LAT. Many of the layoffs in this recession have been permanent rather than temporary as companies often shut down units and pursued structural changes rather than simply cut back. Also, as has been widely reported, many employees who managed to keep their jobs are working fewer hours, meaning that employers are likely to increase the hours of current workers rather than hire new ones. All this instability in the job market means people are likely to want to save their money rather than spend it, which, in turn, means it could take longer for businesses to recover and hire new employees. Even those who do want to spend are likely to find it difficult to get credit.

8:00 AM

Currencies / Commodities - - - FinViz - - - BL Currencies - - - BL Commodities - - - KR Table
Dollar index is +41 pips
Euro futures is -74 pips to 1.4073
Jul crude oil is $68.11, -$1.20
Aug gold is $936.00, -$5.30

7:46 AM

Barchart Morning Summary - - - Barchart
Global stock markets are mostly lower ahead of the all-important Jun US nonfarm payrolls report. Europe's unemployment rate in May rose a more-than-expected +0.2 to 9.5%, a 10-year high, and increases the odds that the ECB may have to expand its use of unconventional tools to battle the recession.

President Jean-Calude Trichet will unveil further details of the bank's plan to buy 60 billion euros of covered bonds. Producer prices in Europe unexpectedly declined for a 10th straight month after May Euro-Zone PPI fell -0.2% m/m, while the -5.8% y/y drop is the largest annual decline in European producer prices since data began in 1981.

Asia-Pacific auto-makers slumped after US auto sales in Jun failed to climb above a 10 million annualized rate.

The Chinese stock market was a bright spot today after power companies led the Shanghai Composite Index to a 1-year high after the state-run Xinhua News Agency said power demand in China's manufacturing hub of Guangdong rose in June.

The dollar rallied today after China's Vice Foreign Minister told reporters in Beijing that he's "not aware' of China pushing to put the subject of an international currency on the agenda for next week's Group of Eight meeting, easing concern that China plans to diversify its $1.95 trillion of currency reserves

7:46 AM

FT / Blogs / Lex / Alphaville - - - World News - - - Blogs - - - Lex - - - Alpha

7:40 AM

Naked Capitalism / Telegraph - - - Yves Smith - - - Evans-Pritchard
Yves: Bloomberg Misses Real Story on Latest Official Chinese Comments on Dollar
Lordie, is the media incapable of doing anything more than writing up official remarks?

7:17 AM

12:00 AM