| Live Commentary |
|
|
NEWS 1 Drudge TTN MktWch Reuters FT Thomson Bloom BL-EU FX Hub RTT CEP PruBear
NEWS 2 Aljazera AP BBC LAT Barchart NPR Merco CNN Video CNBC Video BL Video WSJ NYT ANALYSIS MFGR Wright Baum NakedC SMRA Across Fall St Dismal CalcRisk Fitch BeatPress KR LINKS Archives LiveRes Politics Backup Actives Belly Latest Ratios Bunds PRICES Tsys BL CPMKT RT Yhoo Swaps KRP Financials Footsie Bunds BONDS Briefing USZ TYZ 5-min 10-min 10Y 2Y/30Y TU/US Bund/TY FOMC STOCKS Briefing DJIA NKU8 NK/DJZ S&P 21D Mktbeat Mkt Data Nikkei USD/FX SpotFX USD Euro Yen Aussie Loonie BL Cur Comments FXCM Forex Barchart OIL GOLD Oil CLX Gold Z CRB H/L Copper Z Lumber Nov Soy GC/CL HG/CG Metals Energy LIBERALS All Links Progressives 538 Raw AmBlog AltNet PAnimal Hines DisVoice Global Huff 1Pol LibVal CONSERVE All Links Right Links Drudge Real Clear AmThinker Buchanan WSJ FOX The Hill MILITARY Google Anti-War Stratfor Juan Cole Debka Georgia Daily 12:01 AM
DJIA Closes Down -128.00 at 8,451.19- - - CPMKTE Chart - - - CPMKTE Hi/Lo
Briefing: The stock market posted its eighth consecutive loss in an extremely volatile session, which marked a fitting end to one of the most tumultuous weeks ever. The S&P 500 settled with a loss of 1.2%, which was actually a pretty decent result considering how far it was down at session lows. Morgan Stanley (MS 9.68, -2.77) and Goldman Sachs (GS 88.80, -12.55) tumbled 22.3% and 12.4%, respectively, after the long-term credit ratings of both companies were put on review for a downgrade at Moody's. Still, the financial sector (+7.0%) outperformed, as traders scooped up the recently beaten up shares of real estate investment trusts, regional banks (+9.5%) and large diversified firms (+10.2%), such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.64, +4.96) and Citigroup (C 14.11, +1.18). Commodities plunged 6.7% and oil prices fell 6.9% to $80.61 per barrel as traders speculated a global economic slowdown will crimp consumption. The dollar advanced 1.6%, which also played a role in some of the decline in commodities. 5:40 PM
Conservative Sites
Buchanan: Can McCain still win? ....Yet, Obama has only a six-point lead in an averaging of national polls. While he has moved ahead in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, one senses America is not so much rallying to him as running away from a Republican brand that is now on the same shelf with Chinese baby formula. 3:33 PM
Naked Capitalism - - - Naked Capitalism Is Always A Must (including links)
U.S. stock exchanges may seek to impose a temporary ban on short sales for individual stocks that plunge as regulators seek to rein in short-selling. A "Temporary full state ownership is only solution - Economist Paul De Grauwe, who has been an astute and harsh critic of central bank's models and priorities, makes a very simple point and draw a conclusion. Banks are not lending to each other out of mistrust. Various measures to increase liquidity and backstop banks have not made them look any more favorably upon their brethren 3:30 PM
Calculated Risk and Other Commentary - - - Calculated Risk - - - Baum & Berry - - - Dismal - - - SMRA - - - Fall St
CR: From CNBC: Radical Measures May Be In The Wings Fall Street: We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers - The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned. "We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said. 3:05 PM
Dollar index is up +177 pips to 82.933; the high is 83.142 TODAY
Euro is 1.3345, down -345 pips; the YTD low is 1.3280 TODAY Yen is 1.0052, up +260 pips; the YTD high is 1.0288 TODAY 3:00 PM
KR Research and Features - - - See Latest Updates
What To Do? Canadian banks are world's strongest -- Reuters cites survey "The German Question" by Stratfor and other geopolitical commentary 2:37 PM
WSJ Highlights - - - Murdoch's WSJ - - - Real-Time Economics
Even safe stocks are selling cheap right now. Grit your teeth and buy. Even the solid, safe stuff is going cheap.. Johnson & Johnson's collapsed about 25% in a few weeks. It's down to a price to earnings ratio of 11, yielding about 3.2%. The crash leaves British Petroleum yielding more than 8%. It's the same with Vodafone, the global cellular operator. Kraft's down to levels below than those Warren Buffett paid last winter. Yield: 4.1%. Novartis is down too. The yield's over 3%. Ditto Nestle. Japan's Nippon Telegraph & Telephone is going for a mere 10 times forecast earnings. 2:36 PM
Financial Times Headlines - - - FT - - - Lex - - - Alphaville - - - Wolf
World equity markets plunged again Friday, ending a week-long dive that matched falls seen in the Great Crash of 1929. Risk aversion boost yen and dollar - Risk appetite vanished from the currency markets once more on Friday, as plummeting equities sent investors into panic, scrambling from high-yielding currencies and flocking to the perceived safe havens of the yen and the dollar. 2:34 PM
News Highlights - - - Prudent Bear - - - Bloomberg
Lehman CDS auction results: value set at $0.08625/dollar v $0.0975 initial Gold is down -$43.80 to $842.70 Nov. crude down -$8.22 to $78.37, 1-yr low VIX volatility index moves above 75, Morgan Stanley under pressure U.S. exchanges considering temporary circuit breaker: WSJ Mexico spends tenth of foreign reserves to aid peso Aug. trade gap narrows 3.5% to $59.1 bln --Ex-oil, the trade deficit is $23.53 bln Import prices fall 3% vs. 2.9% fall expected; 12-month import prices rise 14.5% Import prices ex-petroleum fall 0.9%; ex-fuels fall 0.5% 2:15 PM
Dissident Voice - - - Dissident Voice
Israeli Best-seller Breaks National Taboo -- Dr Sand argues that the idea of a Jewish nation – whose need for a safe haven was originally used to justify the founding of the state of Israel – is a myth invented little more than a century ago. 2:14 PM
Jim Fitch Commentary - - - No Assembly Required
Going Out of Business Sale: - Bush's Bureau of Land Management has ignored federal law in order to expedite commercial development of oil shale in the West before Junior joins history. The BLM admits is skipped some provisions of the law, but maintains the public will have years to protest and comment after the fact. 2:11 PM
The 10yr swap narrower by -0.4to +57.6 - - - Swaps
- The July/Oct narrowest is near +57.6 on Oct 10; May/Sep widest is +79.8bp on Jul 8 - The 2008 range is +56.8 on May 19 to the widest since 2001 at +91.3 on March 6 - Swap rate was +63.7 at 2007 yearend and +48.0 at 2006 yearend The 2yr swap is wider by +8.9bp to +148.8 (+100.3 on Sept 15) - Jul/Oct range is +83.9 on 7/30 to +162.9 on Sep 24 (at least 19-year wide) 1:20 PM
Spot FX: Dollar and Yen Up, Index Up +102 pips
Euro is 1.3464 vs 1.3659; the low is 1.3452 on Oct 10; high is 1.6037 Dollar-Yen is 99.61 vs 100.52 Euro-yen at 134.09 vs 137.30; 1-yr low is 132.76 Oct 10; high on July 22 is 169.90 Canadian dollar at 1.1847 vs 1.1434; dollar high is 1.1986 Oct 10 Aussie is 65.58 vs 69.96; the low is 64.39 on last week 1:00 PM
USZ8 is up +6.0 ticks
2Y is 1.620%, -5.6bp; at least 25bp more ease is expected 10Y is 3.861%, +4.6bp and TYZ8 is down -2.5 ticks 2Y/10Y is steeper by +10.2bp at +224.1 Oil is down -$5.92 to $80.67 Dollar index up +104 pips, euro is down -203 pips to 1.3487 Gold is up +$1.40 to $887.90 12:53 PM
Election - - More Links - - 538 - - Intrade - Iowa - - CQ Politics
538: Obama win pct at 90.7%, the all-time HIGH; the McCain high is 57.7% Iowa WTA: Obama win 84.0; the record high is 86.0; lowest is 53.8 on Sept 12 Intrade: Obama is 78.0 to record high; the McCain high is 51.7 Intrade: Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor: Obama 353, McCain 185 12:49 PM
Yield Spread of Corporates Over Treasuries
CMCYLD Corporate yield is 8.02%, higher in yield by +15bp CPMKTT Treasurys yield is 2.80%, higher in yield by +03bp Corp over Tsys Spread is 5.22% (NEW RECORD) vs 5.10% at yesterday's close The underlying corporate index (CPMKTC) is calculated based on the total return of the nearly 4,000 investment grade corporate fixed income securities representing the investment grade corporate market with a maturity greater than one year. The underlying Treasury index (CPMKTT) is calculated based on the total return of the United States Treasury securities with a maturity greater than one year. 12:43 PM
CPMKTM The Capital Markets Mortgage-backed Bond Index
Index is 16,834.34 vs 17,053.41 on Sep 29 The Capital Markets Mortgage-backed Bond Index is calculated based on the total return of the nearly 300 mortgage generics in CPMKTB representing approximately 460,000 GSE mortgage pools. The divisor was initially set to yield a starting value of 10000 at the end of trading on December 31, 1999. 12:29 PM
Nick Kalivas of MF Global Research - - - Log On: wkidder 147258
GS and MS are trading heavy and killing the stock market. 12:18 PM
Google News and Drudge - - - Goggle News - - - Drudge - - - StormPulse
Reuters via Drudge: Ex-president Carter slams Bush on market crisis - "The economic situation is an entrenched problem. It is going to take years to correct what has been done economically," Carter said, adding he hoped Democrat Barrack Obama would win and immediately improve Washington's image in the world. Eight years ago, the United States had a budget surplus, low inflation and a stable, strong economy, he said. Carter said he was astonished that the United States now owed China "in the neighborhood of $1 trillion." Deregulation and what he called a withdrawal of supervision of Wall Street had encouraged irresponsible elements in the U.S. financial system, enabling banks to borrow 30 times their value. 12:18 PM
Liberal / Progressive Sites
Liberal Values: Ronald Reagan has the right advice in this video for deciding how to vote. 12:15 PM
Sy Harding of Street Smart - - - Street Smart
The only good news is that it does provide the potential for a much larger rally than I was expecting at our next buy signal. I have been saying here, and in my weekly newspaper columns, that I expect a substantial rally in the final months of the year once we get our next buy signal, but not enough to get the market into positive territory for the year. 11:59 AM
Australia and Canada - - - BL Australia - - - - - - BL Canada
Aussie is 0.6521, down -463 pips; low is 0.6468 Oct 8 Canadian dollar is 0.8415, down -353 pips to its 3-year low today Dollar index up +99 pips 11:59 AM
TYZ8 and Bunds Yield
- Dec Bund futures at 4.127%, +11.4bp - Dec TYU8 futures at 4.355%, +8.4bp - Yield spread is -22.9 vs -25.8 yesterday; spread was -1.7bp on Sep 30 - Spreadd was +32.6 Sept 18; the 18-day average is +12.2 and narrowing every day - The Jun/Sep range is +45.2bp on Jul 2 to -25.8bp Oct 9 11:55 AM
Mauldlin's Investors Insight - - - Updates
Butler of Everbank: When things look bleak, the dollar goes up... And when it looks as though all the stimulus might work, the dollar sells off... This has been quite evident in Japanese yen overnight, as stocks sold off 11%, the currency rallied to a 98 handle from 101 yesterday... And... Then in dollar trading, other than yen, the dollar is stronger this morning, pushing the euro back to the 1.35 handle. The high yielders, which enjoyed a day in the sun yesterday before U.S. stocks took a turn on the slippery slope, got whacked hard overnight! UGH! Gold is back above $900 again this morning... I find Gold's performance in the face of a falling Oil price and a stronger dollar to be very impressive indeed! But, in reality, I'm still scratching my head over why Gold isn't soaring, given the lack of supply of the physical metal... Someday, this will all be very clear to everyone what went on... But for now, we scratch our heads and wonder... 11:52 AM
Beat The Press and More - - - Econ View - - - Ninja - - - Mish's - - - BeatPress
Beat: Almost One in Six Homeowners Underwater - The WSJ had a good article yesterday reporting that almost one in six homeowners is underwater. This may actually be overly optimistic. 11:41 AM
Global Research - - - Global Research
How to Save the U.S. Economy - Keynesian plans for top-down creation of jobs by government deficit spending has never worked and has always ended in an attempt by the government to inflate its way out of debt. Everything being suggested by the Obama/McCain campaigns is based on the failed Keynesian formula. An entirely new paradigm is needed. This can be provided through dividend-based economics like the Alaska Permanent Fund, the 2008 tax rebate stimulus, and the basic income guarantee (negative income tax) discussed during the 1960s and 197s. - more 11:29 AM
Inflationary Expectations In The Freezer, Down -12.9bp To RECORD - - - Bloomberg Tsys - - - Cleveland Fed
- The 10Y minus Tips breakeven spread is 0.888% vs 101.8% - All-time low is 0.888% TODAY; the YTD high is 2.613% on Jul 3 - Gauge was 1.953% on Sep 12 and 2.084% Sep 2 - UMich 1-yr inflation expectations down to 4.8% vs 5.1% and 5-yr unchanged at 3.2% Tips market suggests an era of deflation But if gauge moves to 2.000%, quickly move 25% of your cash hoard into hard assets. 11:24 AM
Briefing Stocks & Bonds Commentary- - - Stocks - - - Bonds
Initial results show that Lehman Brothers bonds were priced at 9.75 cents on the dollar during an auction by credit default swap sellers, according to Creditfixings.com, an executor of credit derivatives. This means that firms that sold Lehman credit default swaps, which investors buy to protect against the default of a company, will have to pay 90.25 cents on the dollar to the CDS holders. The pricing was lower than what LEH bonds were trading at, according to reports. DJIA down -290 -- The financial sector (+0.6%) continues to post a gain, but is well off its high. 11:18 AM
South America - - - MercoPress - - - Goggle Argentina - - - Dissent Voice
Merco Press: IMF ready for the rescue with seven recommendations - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has activated an emergency finance mechanism to help countries hit by the financial crisis. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Khan said the lending procedure would allow the IMF to react quickly to support countries facing funding problems. The scheme, which was used during the Asian financial crisis in 1997, will help speed up approval of loans. He said the world was "on the cusp of recession", but could still recover. 11:16 AM
The Hill - - - The Hill
Obama leads by double digits in new poll - Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama opened up a double-digit lead over Republican nominee John McCain for the first time in a new Battleground Poll. The Illinois senator was up 48-38 in a poll of 800 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. 11:10 AM
Across The Curve - - - Commentary
Mortgages got smoked this morning as mutual funds and money managers engaged in what one dealer described as “panic selling”. At one point mortgages had underperformed swaps by nearly a point. There seems to be some stability and improvement now but it would not be difficult to engender another sell off. Swap spreads were well behaved with 2year through 10 year spreads wider by about a basis point. Spreads in the 30 year sector were tighter by about 8 basis points. I have not conversed with anyone regarding that but I would bet it is the same shenanigans from exotic desks which has motivated that sector over the last few days. Earlier: The 5 year point on the curve has taken a drubbing since Tuesday. On Tuesday, I closed the 2year/5year/30 year butterfly at minus 56 basis points. At the current time it is minus 17 basis points. 10:17 AM
CPMKTB Bond Index is down -0.33% - - - CPMKTB Chart - - - CPMKTB Hi/Lo - - - Explanation
CPMKTB is 16,602.34 and down -4.22% from its all-time intraday high of 17,333.45 Tuesday, Sep 16. The loss is due to historically wide corporate spreads. 9:55 AM
Wrightson Calendar and Commentary - - - Wrightson ICAP
The composition of the international trade report was a surprise, as the headline deficit narrowed less than we projected but the inflation-adjusted balance improved more expected. Import prices fell across the board, as non-fuel prices were far weaker than anticipated 9:41 AM
FXCM Commentary - - - FXCM - - - Thomson
FXCM: G7 Meeting -- Will Governments Guarantee Interbank Lending? After a test of 1.3500 the Euro bounced from support. The pair would find resistance at 1.3650 and has started to consolidate ahead of the upcoming G7 meeting. Finance ministers and central bankers from the U.S. Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Canada and Italy will meet in Washington D.C. today to discuss what other measures can be taken to help stem the crisis. Euro spot last at 1.3537 8:50 AM
Barchart Forecasts & Commentary - - - 7:30 Daily
MW: Both imports and exports declined in August, but imports fell faster than exports in August. However, the 2.0% drop in exports was the biggest since June 2004. Auto imports were the lowest since March 2005. Imports of crude oil dropped for the first time in six months. MFGR: Ex-oil, the trade deficit is $23.53 bln. BC before today's data: The big impact of strong export demand can be seen in the US trade deficit ex-petroleum, which has narrowed by more than $20 billion in the past 2 years to the current level of -$18.8 billion. That is the narrowest ex-petroleum deficit in at least the last 8 years since the data series began. If it were not for the huge American appetite for foreign oil, the US trade deficit problem would be on its way towards being solved. 8:32 AM
Calendar and Forecasts - - - KR Calendar - - - Wrightson - - - Int'l Calendar - - - Any Date
1300 Early Close in Chicago Tuesday, Oct 14 0730 NFIB Index 0745 ICSC/UBS Store Sales Index 0855 Redbook Average Index 1000 IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Ind 1230 Plosser 1400 Fed disc rate minutes 1400 US budget, maybe delayed 1700 ABC Consumer Comfort Index 8:27 AM
Highlights - - - Barchart at 7:30 - - - Prudent Bear - - - Thomson - - - Nikkei - - - Bloomberg
Dow futures down -178 Morgan Stanley shares fall 11.7%, to $10.99 in pre-open November crude down $3.80 to $82.79 a barrel on Globex European equity markets in free fall; all eyes on policymakers and G7 Nikkei down -821, biggest fall in 20 years on panic selling; ends week with 24% loss OCED Area August Leading indicator m/m: 95.8 v 96.5 prior; weakening global economy 3-month interbank rates high as crisis deepens money market freeze U.S. weighs backing bank debt, deposits: reports Mutual fund withdrawals a record, redemption selling driving stocks down JGBs dumped in dealer panic rush for cash Yen set for biggest gains in 10 years as carry trade evaporates (up +145 pips today) 8:10 AM
Big Picture and Other Commentary - - - Big Picture - - - Sy Harding - - - NoTr - - - TMTGM - - - Implode
Big Picture: Fix the Credit Problem, Not its Symptoms - Why are markets reacting so negatively to a near $1 trillion bailout? The short answer is that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have been focusing on the wrong issues. They have been treating falling asset prices—houses, stocks, bonds—as well as the lack of confidence between banks, as the actual issue. This is the wrong approach. Falling asset prices and a lack of confidence are a result of the underlying problem. You don’t cure alcoholism by getting rid of a hangover; you cannot resolve confidence issues by merely cutting rates. Volcker: We Need Leadership to Fix the Crisis Read the whole piece. It is a combination of realism, and optimism, and at the same time, a thinly veiled swipe at the entire Greenspan philosophy, with some mild criticism of the Bush administration thrown in for good measure. But most importantly, Volcker states that this is fixable. (and that's good enough for me). 7:16 AM
Strategy and Military - - - Google - - - Anti-War - - - Debka - - - Stratfor - - - Cole
Stratfor: The Germans will thus block NATO’s ambitions, something that represents a dramatic shift in the Western alliance. This shift in fact has been unfolding for quite a while, but it took the Russo-Georgian war to reveal the change. Google: "Feeling Expansive, Moscow Looks To U.S. Backyard" 4:53 AM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts of US Capital Market Indexes - - - CPMKTS - - - CPMKTE - - - CPMKTB - - - CPMKTL Barcharts charts (delayed prices) including 2008 historical data Index Rule Books - - - 4 Rule Books Each rule book details the design objective, eligibility requirements, selection methodology, weighting methodology, calculation methodology, and maintenance tasks for the respective Capital Market Index. CPMKTB Bond Market Index Explained - - - White Paper Dorchester’s first white paper explains our approach to creating a real-time index with fixed income securities. About Kidder Reports - - - What We Do - - - Disclaimer - - - We Do Our Best, But Don't Rely On Us! Previous day's commentary and bullets are below the line 12:00 AM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts of US Capital Market Indexes - - - CPMKTS - - - CPMKTE - - - CPMKTB - - - CPMKTL Barcharts charts (delayed prices) including 2008 historical data Index Rule Books - - - 4 Rule Books Each rule book details the design objective, eligibility requirements, selection methodology, weighting methodology, calculation methodology, and maintenance tasks for the respective Capital Market Index. CPMKTB Bond Market Index Explained - - - White Paper Dorchester’s first white paper explains our approach to creating a real-time index with fixed income securities. About Kidder Reports - - - What We Do - - - Disclaimer - - - We Do Our Best, But Don't Rely On Us! Previous day's commentary and bullets are below the line 12:00 AM
IPS News - - - IPS News
BEIJING,(IPS) - The Wall Street fire-sale has prompted China economic pundits to call on Beijing to avail of the opportunity to acquire stakes in United States financial institutions and further its influence on global financial power. 12:30 PM
Market Update - Down - Curve Flatter - New 1Y Wide
The 2Y is the Dog of the day at 2.990% higher in yield by 29.7bps. The 10Y is at 3.840% higher in yield by 22.0bps. The 2/30Y spread is flatter by 13.9bps at 231.5bps. The 2/10Y spread is flatter by 7.7bps at 184.0bps. The 5/30Y spread is at 131.8bps, flatter by 11.3bps. The belly of the curve is at 104.4bps, cheaper by 7.3bps 3:10 PM
|